Off the back of a strong Day 3 where we nailed our best, value and called a Fognini upset over Ruud, there’s plenty more to come in Day 4. See our outright Wimbledon betting previews here.
Best Bet
Kenin was a tough first-round opponent for Iga Swiatek, but this will be a lot easier against Petra Martic.
The Croatian has an 11-14 record this year and required three sets to get past the 215th ranked Brit Francesca Jones. Winning just one of her last nine matches against top-100 opposition, Martic has struggled against Swiatek in their past three meetings with the Pole covering the -6.5 game handicap in two of those matches while not dropping a set. This should be a walk in the park.
Next Best
Has put together two really strong months which includes a great grass court lead-up. Lorenzo Musetti is 16-6 since April 29, which includes having Novak Djokovic on toast in the third-round of the French Open.
Since then, the Italian made the Semi Final of Stuttgart and Final of Queen’s Club, and although he started slowly at Wimbledon he finished that match strong.
He faces fellow Italian Luciano Darderi who he recently beat on the clay in May. Darderi is very raw on grass with a 3-4 career record on the surface, requiring five sets to get past the 174th ranked Jan Choinski. I expect Musetti to be far too strong this second-round covering the -4.5.
Alexander Zverev has these mid-slam lapses and I’m predicting we see one early against Marcos Giron.
Even as recent as the French Open we saw Zverev require five sets from tricky positions to get past Rune and Griekspoor, and grass is a surface he’s not as comfortable on.
The American Giron had a strong lead-up to Wimbledon with a Quarter Final run in Halle which included wins over Berrettini and Rublev, and in his only appearance against the German he managed to take a set at the 2021 Australian Open forcing the total games to 43. Think we see the same here.
If you take away the clay-court matches this year, Anna Kalinskya owns a 23-7 record in 2024, entering Wimbledon in good touch reaching the Final at Berlin.
Although Marie Bouzkova owns a 2-0 career record over the Russian, their last match in 2022 was a retirement while the match prior was back in 202 where Kalinskya was ranked outside the top-100.
Now ranked 18 in the world, she should have Bouzkova’s measure who is 3-7 across her career on grass against top-50 opposition.
Robin Montgomery is a promising 19-year-old American, but if there’s any initiation to grass court tennis it’s against Ons Jabeur.
Jabeur’s last five matches on grass against opposition ranked outside the top-50 she’s won in straight sets with all matches under 21.5 games, on average conceding just four games per match during that stretch.
Although Montgomery has shown a bit in the lead-up, her best scalp has been Magda Linette. Jabeur is potentially the best grass court player in the women’s draw, which makes this games total too high.
Value Bet
I know it’s not a big name scalp, but what Caroline Wozniacki did in the first-round against the American Parks was ultra-impressive.
The Dane won 6-2 6-0 winning 74% of her service points, the 7th best serve performance from all players in the first-round, plus 65% of return points which was ranked 1 of all first-round matches.
Leylah Fernandez had a strong lead-up to Wimbledon, but her form at majors is much to be desired. Since making the Quarter Final of the 2022 French Open, Fernandez is just 8-7 at majors with a career record of 2-2 at Wimbledon. The veteran Wozniacki has to be considered a huge chance, especially if she can come close to replicating her first-round performance.
Daily H2H Multi
Musetti (M) / Kokkinakis (M) / Badosa (W) / Pegula (W) / Kalinskya (W) / Jabeur (W) = $5.32
