Some big contests to kick off Day 1 of Wimbledon with Sinner, Alcaraz and Sabalenka in action, but I’ve got my eyes on a young American with the potential to make an impact this fortnight. See our outright Wimbledon betting previews here.
Best Bet
Jan-Lennard Struff has been in outstanding form on both clay and grass this year but I can’t see the German winning this in straight sets which makes this total games line far too low on grass.
Struff has played in 12 sets on grass in the lead-up with seven of those going to 7.
His opponent Fabian Marozsan is ranked 45 in the world and took a set off Sinner in Halle his last match, with their career record tight. Split at one apiece, both matches have gone to three sets and included a tiebreak. Hard to see Marozsan beat Struff on grass, but do expect the Hungarian to at least win a set.
Next Best
Both French, both old, but only one winning tennis matches of late. Adrian Mannarino’s odds are flattering purely due to his career record on grass, but he’s had a horror 2024.
Mannarino is 8-17 this year, and since Delray Beach mid-February that record becomes 2-12. The Frenchman did win one match on grass in the lead-up, but against an opponent ranked 125 in the world which went to three sets.
Monfils made the Semi Final at Calvia in the lead-up and has won the last four matches against Mannarino including Stockholm last year. Very hard to see Mannarino turn around this form slump.
Banking on the American stepping it up on the big stage, as his current form on tour has been awful.
Shelton faces the 150th ranked Mattia Bellucci who has a 20-20 record for the year including a 1-3 record against top-100 opposition – the one win being against David Goffin in the Wimbledon qualifiers.
The American’s game should translate to grass with the weapons he possesses, so I’m backing this in against an Italian only featuring in his third major draw failing to win from his two previous attempts.
The Ukrainian did beat Mirra Andreeva in the lead-up but was underwhelming outside of that, but shouldn’t have any troubles against Nadia Podoroska.
The Argentine plays Wimbledon and grass court tennis in general purely to tick a box, losing to Alexandrova in the lead-up 6-3 6-0. Podoroska is just 18-17 on the year, which includes 8-9 on hard court emphasising that she much prefers the clay court.
Podoroska is 1-9 against top-50 opposition this year on all surfaces this year, so can’t see her troubling Yastremska.
Barely played any tennis, but Karolina Muchova has a habit of entering majors with very little tennis under her belt and making a significant impact.
The grass is a surface that Muchova certainly has the game for and she showed enough in the lead-up in Eastbourne.
Badosa won their most recent meeting in Rome last year on the clay, with Muchova winning their only grass court meeting at Wimbledon in 2021. The Spaniard has been solid of late, but if we see the best of Muchova the Czech should be too strong on this surface.
Value Bet
Think we see the Chilean at these odds purely based on Shapovalov’s Wimbledon record, but the Canadian is far from that player.
Shapovalov has a 12-16 record in 2024 and although Jarry doesn’t have a grass court lead-up he’s 16-13 this year.
The Chilean was great on glass last year with the sixth best service and return points won against top-100 opposition, where he challenged Alcaraz in the third round last year. The Jarry serve will be tough for Shapovalov to do damage against on the grass this early in the tournament, which makes this price great value.
Daily H2H Multi
Monfils (M) / Shelton (M) / Struff (M) / Mertens (W) / Minnen (W) / Yastremska (W) = $5.45
