Sunday best bets for Casterton – It’s one of the highlights of the jumping year when a terrific field meets in the Twin Rivers Steeplechase, headlined by the mighty Elvison.
UPDATE: Sunday 9.30am. With scratchings and weather my thoughts on Race 2 have changed.
Race 1 – WC & AC Miller Maiden Hurdle, 3500m
The market has singled out That’s Incranibull and Zoffala as the two key winning chances and I think that is correct. I’m with the former. Both debuted on the same day at Sale but That’s Incranibull was in the stronger race and they ran three seconds faster than Zoffala’s race. Expect him to sit just off Zoffala and be stronger late.
Strategy: Back That’s Incranibull.
Race 2 – Davis Blinds BM120 Hurdle, 3500m
UPDATED: With the rain having arrived and Abreed being scratched, conditions now favour Lucky Plutus. He won well here on debut, loves wet ground and should get a very easy time in front. Lord Pierro remains a knockout chance but the value is well and truly gone from his price.
Strategy: Back Lucky Plutus.
Race 4 – Twin Rivers Steeplechase, 3800m
$3.00 or better in early markets for Elvison is a gift. The horse is a specialist at the track and extraordinarily drops 1Kg from his dominant last start win here. A magnificent jumper on a track where jumping ability is paramount, he’s won five of his seven starts here. The main danger if dry would have been Riding High, but it needs firm ground and seems unlikely to get it.
Strategy: Back Elvison.
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