New Zealand were embarrassed by Tonga last week in a shock 25-24 defeat and now must defeat Papua New Guinea if they wish to keep their spot in the Cup in 2025.
Best Bet
Stacey Jones’ first campaign in charge of New Zealand has been a disaster. While the Kiwis dug deep against the Kangaroos, they were extraordinarily poor in execution. That carried over to the Tonga clash where the Kiwis were horrific in the first half and despite a second-half comeback, went down 25-24.
Whether it is stubbornness or stupidity, Jones has stuck with the same 17. He is again playing CNK at six. Hiku is still in the centre. Erin Clark has again been overlooked.
PNG were super in upsetting Fiji in their Bowl opener and eventually won and covered against Cook Islands, but were extremely flat. They will need to lift for New Zealand but they are a nation on the up and this line is too big.
The PNG backline is very sharp with Nene MacDonald in world class form, the Lam/Laybutt halves combination more than capable and the wingers both quality tryscorers. The pack is boosted by the return of Rhyse Martin.
Head-to-head form means nothing here. It is a disgrace that these teams have met just three times this century and not since the Kiwis won 56-10 at the 2013 World Cup. That was very much before PNG’s rise though.
PNG are 14-6 in their last 20 Tests. Only three of those losses have been by more than 18. They’ve beaten Great Britain over that run. The Kiwis are flailing.
This line is far too big. Chips in the Kumuls plus.
Same Game Multi
Robert Derby has five tries in his six Tests and looks a quality NRL player in the making.
Isaiah Papalii scored his maiden Test try against Tonga while he has 24 tries in his last 92 NRL games so can find the chalk.
Value Bet
Fearless prop Sylvester Namo has been outstanding this Pacific Championships. He has not taken a backwards step and he has been more than handy around the tryline too. He has scored in both games and can score again against a soft Kiwi middle.
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