Queensland were embarrassed in Melbourne when the Blues scored a record 34 first half points against the Maroons but back at home look primed to avenge that defeat and claim the series.
Best Bet
Billy Slater missed a golden opportunity to lock up the series when he ignored David Fifita again in order to go with Kurt Capewell for this all-important decider but the Maroons still need to be the bet.
While Slater has made an obvious blue and handed New South Wales a massive advantage on the edges with Crichton and Martin set to dominate Capewell and Nanai, he remains the coach for more likely to out-strategise his counterpart. That is a huge edge.
In terms of changes, the rest were nearly as expected. Kalyn Ponga is in for Jaydn Su’A in the only optional change for the Maroons with Selwyn Cobbo an Dane Gagai replacing injured duo Murray Taulagi and Xavier Coates. The Blues have named Bradman Best to replace the injured Latrell Mitchell while Haumole Olakau’atu was dumped for the in-form Mitch Barnett.
History and numbers are certainly on Queensland’s side.
New South Wales have not won a decider at Suncorp since 1994. Queensland have dominated at Suncorp for a long time, winning 14 of 17 matchups at the venue since 2010. They have won seven of nine live matches over the last decade.
The key for Queensland here is the game three and decider stats that very much push both the Maroons and the home team.
The home team has won the last nine game threes with the loser of the second game winning eight of the last 10.
The home team has won seven of the last eight deciders.
Everything sets up for Queensland here. If they can matchup through the middle early – and they have that opportunity with their middles – then the Maroons have the sense, talent and experience to finish this off.
Same Game Multi
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has thrived in the Origin arena with nine tries in his six Origin appearances. He scored last game after returning to the field following a serious AC joint injury.
Reece Walsh has not scored in four Origin appearances but he has been sensational for the Broncos this year, scoring 10 in 10 games, failing to score just three times.
Value Bet
Put a line through Daly Cherry-Evans and Mitchell Moses. Players don’t win two gongs in a series. It has happened just once in three decades. With Queensland fancied, the best hope looks to be fullback Reece Walsh. Walsh certainly fits the narrative angles. He was taken out in the opener. Was close to Queensland’s worst in the second. If Queensland win and he has some nice touches, it is going to be a real redemption story. Love him as a bet at better than $6.
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