The series and Brad Fittler’s career is on the line in Game 2 when New South Wales travel to Suncorp to meet a Maroons team with one-hand on the Origin shield.
Best Bet
New South Wales face a do or die situation at Suncorp on Wednesday night with Brad Fittler remarkably staring down the barrel of a third series loss in four years, an astonishing feat considering this is the first game the Maroons have been favoured in his six-season tenure. He is no chance of surviving if the Blues don’t win this.
Fittler has, as has been the case, not optimised his team. Choosing Mitchell Moses and Jarome Luai as the halves pairing was the height of arrogance but there has been a significant improvement made to the lineup. Api Koroisau is out with injury and has been replaced by recalled veteran Damien Cook but more importantly Reece Robson has been named on the bench and it is clear how Fittler will have to use him. Dropping Tevita Pangai Jnr can only be viewed as a positive too.
Queensland’s selection woes have not received the same attention but the losses of Tom Gilbert, Jai Arrow and Selwyn Cobbo are significant. They were far more in-form than at least two of their replacements in Jeremiah Nanai and Xavier Coates.
The number in this all-important clash just seems too big.
Brad Fittler has won all five game twos in his Origin coaching career. Home teams do not have a recent history of running away big winners either with only three of the last 14 played in Sydney or Brisbane won by the home team by more than a converted try. And referees do favour the team that is down, regardless of what they say.
With the line out to 6.5 points, the plus is now a bet.
Same Game Multi
Valentine Holmes has scored four tries in his last five Origins at Suncorp and is in decent tryscoring form with four tries in his last 10 club games.
Tom Trbojevic has seven tries in six Origins games as a centre and has 10 tries in 11 games for Manly in 2023.
Value Bet
James Tedesco is not enjoying a banner season at club level and had an abhorrent game in Adelaide but he looks huge value to win Player of the Match honours, particularly for those who fancy the Blues. Tedesco has won three Man of the Match awards – one short of the Blues record – and there is no way the substandard halves could win it. Damien Cook has not won the award in 15 Origins. Teddy is a super play.
Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best State of Origin tips & predictions for each game of the series.
