The Brisbane Broncos have been hit hard by State of Origin and the one-time premiership front-runners face a tough task in Napier against a New Zealand team that has shown plenty of gumption in 2023.
Best Bet
Brisbane have been hit as hard as anyone by Origin selection this week missing five players. Payne Haas, Patrick Carrigan, Thomas Flegler, Reece Walsh and Selwyn Cobbo will all miss this clash with the Warriors. New Zealand are, as is typical, free of any selections.
New Zealand are entitled to win this and win it well. They have covered six of the last nine against the Broncos and Brisbane are 10-15 against the spread interstate. Their scoring though is a worry with just two scores greater than 24 this season.
This looks a strong under game though. The Broncos are really going to struggle to break down the Warriors and New Zealand have conceded 20 or fewer in nine of 12 and no more than 14 in four New Zealand games.
The under has hit in six straight games between the Broncos and Warriors. It is 13-5 when the Warriors are favoured and is 8-4 when the Broncos are interstate off a loss of more than 10 points.
This total looks far too high.
Same Game Multi
Marcelo Montoya has scored in his last two against Brisbane and comes up against substitute Deine Mariner.
Luke Metcalf is lightning-fast who has a try in two of his three games as a starter.
Value Bet
New Zealand have built their success very much on their defence this year and they have been particularly stout in their home country with four games played and no more than 14 points conceded. With the Broncos missing their go forward and two key attacking weapons, it would not surprise if they were restricted to one or two tries.
Follow Betseeker for weekly expert NRL tips and predictions for the 2023 NRL season.
