The Roosters are heavily favoured to roll the Bulldogs in Gosford on Saturday evening but the line looks a little big against a team that is playing quality football.
Best Bet
Golly gosh, the Bulldogs seem an incredibly large price here against the Roosters.
The Bulldogs have the second best defence in the NRL. They defeated the Roosters earlier in the season. They are less impacted by Origin. They beat down on the Roosters earlier in the season.
Let’s start with the Origin impact. The Bulldogs have lost just skipper Stephen Crichton while the Roosters have lost four: Angus Crichton, Lindsay Collins, Spencer Leniu and Connor Watson.
The Bulldogs have certainly had the best of the Roosters lately. They have won two of the last three and covered the last four.
Canterbury have covered five of six off a win and made the nut in their last three against Top 8 teams. They have played Gosford well, covering five of seven.
The Roosters have tended to struggle in Gosford, covering just four of 15 since 2008. The Chooks also cover at just 40% off a win while they are 20-31 ATS against Top 8 opposition.
The Bulldogs are a tremendous bet.
Insights
🐾 Canterbury’s Road Trends: The Bulldogs have struggled to hit the over in away games, with 6 out of their last 7 games going under the total.
🏆 Canterbury’s Defence After a Win: Following a victory, Canterbury tends to engage in low-scoring affairs, with 6 consecutive games going under the total in such scenarios.
📉 Roosters’ Struggles Against Canterbury: Sydney Roosters have failed to cover the spread in their last 4 matchups against Canterbury, indicating a challenging matchup for them.
Same Game Multi
Daniel Tupou should benefit from Canterbury conceding nearly 60% of their tries down their right. He has nine tries in 12 games this season.
Connor Tracey is not an elite tryscorer but has scored three times this year and the Roosters have conceded to a fullback in three of their last five.
Value Bet
Josh Curran is an underrated tryscoring proposition. He is named to start on an edge and when he does start there – he has been swapped around plenty this year – he has 11 tries in 40 games.
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