NRL Tips – St George Illawarra v Dolphins – Round 17 2024

Best Bet

St George Illawarra -1.5

Line

$1.85

The Dragons opened up as favourites in this one, drifted to marginal outsiders and are back into favourites following Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow’s AC joint injury he picked up in Origin. While he returned to the field, he is unlikely to play for the Dolphins this week.

Shane Flanagan’s team do look a good bet.

They are a different team at Kogarah. When these two teams met at the ground last year, the Dragons won 38-12. They have covered 12 of 18 at the ground while they are 9-3 ATS at Kogarah off a loss.

The Dragons are also 38-22 ATS in NSW while they have covered six of seven off conceding 30-plus.

If Ben Hunt plays, as expected, then the Dragons look in a good spot to be winning this one.

Insights

🐬 Off a Loss: The Dolphins have shown a strong ability to bounce back after a loss. In their last 6 games following a loss, they have secured 5 wins. Additionally, these games tend to be high-scoring, with all of the last 4 going over the total points line.

📉 Against Bottom 9 Teams: Interestingly, the Dolphins have struggled against bottom 9 teams. In the last 4 games against such teams, they haven’t secured a win or a cover. This might indicate a tendency to underestimate lower-ranked opponents or a focus on tougher challenges.

📊 Off a Loss: The Dragons are also known for bouncing back after a loss. In their last 9 games following a loss, they have covered the spread 7 times. However, these games tend to be low-scoring, with 8 out of the last 9 going under the total points line. This indicates a focus on defense and tighter gameplay after a setback.