Penrith have endured a mixed run with Nathan Cleary on the sidelines but given how they play against Top 8 opposition then they look a bet laying a more-than-reasonable minus.
Best Bet
With so many players needing to backup from Origin duty, this is a game that is best bet late.
North Queensland, remarably, had six players on Origin duty. Jeremiah Nanai was not named while it remains to be seen which of the remaining five will play. Given their precarious position, it is expected all will play.
Penrith have five who will need to back up including forwards Isaah Yeo and Liam Martin.
Assuming all play, Penrith do look the bet in this one.
The Panthers have a very nice record against the Cowboys, winning six of the last eight. They have won the last four at Bluebet against North Queensland with the Cowboys held scoreless in two of those.
Penrith are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 at Bluebet and they are particularly strong when coming off a poor defensive showing, covering 19 of 24 off allowing 18 or more points.
The Cowboys have covered just 11 of 29 interstate including 8 of 21 as an interstate underdog. They have also covered just eight of 23 against Top 4 teams.
Keep an eye on the Origin players but Penrith look a play laying 10.5.
Insights
⚡️ Against Top Teams: The Cowboys have shown a knack for high-scoring games against top-tier teams. In their last 4 games against both top 4 and top 8 teams, all have gone over the total points line
📊 Recent Performance: North Queensland’s recent form has been marked by high-scoring games. In their last 15 games, 12 have gone over the total points line, indicating a consistent trend towards high-scoring matches.
🏆 Off a Win: When the Panthers are coming off a win, they have struggled to cover the spread. In the last 7 games following a win, they’ve only managed to cover once. Additionally, these games tend to be low-scoring, with the last 4 all going under the total points line.
Same Game Multi
Brian To’o has seven tries in six games against the Cowboys, crossing at least once in every appearance.
Sunia Turuva has 11 tries in 13 games and is a must-include in all Panthers SGMs.
Paul Alamoti has four tries in eight appearances this year.
Value Bet
Moses Leota is playing like a beast once again this year and he has arguably the second best footwork of any prop behind only Addin Fonua-Blake. He has scored just once this year but he does have four tries in his last 29 games so can get across a lot for a prop.
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