Despite being somewhat out-of-form for a lot of the year, the Storm find themselves atop the table and go in heavily favoured against a Raiders team that has been poor of late.
Best Bet
There is not much argument about who the better team is here. It is Melbourne. There is also not much of a fight about which team has more upside. It is, of course, Melbourne.
The bet in this game though is the Raiders plus and we like Canberra here for a few reasons.
The Raiders have tended to play the Storm better than anyone else recently, particularly in Melbourne, with five wins in their last six at AAMI Park.
Canberra are a super bounceback team off a shocking defensive performance, covering all nine off conceding 40-plus across the last four years.
While Melbourne keep winning, big wins have been rare this year. The Storm have just two victories of more than 14 points on the books all season.
Canberra have also covered eight of their last 10 when an interstate underdog of more than two converted tries.
This is a bet and pray game, where we will just hold on for the ride, but the smart money will be with Canberra here.
Insights
🌍 Away Games: Canberra Raiders’ away games have consistently been high-scoring. In the last 8 games, 7 have gone over the total points line. This trend suggests that when the Raiders travel, matches tend to feature plenty of points.
📉 Against Top Teams: However, the Raiders have struggled against top-tier teams. They have only 2 covers in their last 9 games against top-4 teams, showing that they often find it challenging to perform against the league’s best.
🔥 After Conceding Big Points: When the Raiders concede over 30 points in a game, they have a remarkable ability to bounce back. They’ve won 10 out of the last 15. Interestingly, when conceding over 40 points, Canberra has covered the line in nine straight.
Same Game Multi
Ryan Papenhuyzen is one of the great tryscorers in the NRL with eight tries in his nine games this season.
Albert Hopoate has 11 tries in 28 games when starting on the wing for the Raiders.
Hudson Young has six tries in his last nine games and is usually over the odds.
Value Bet
For a player that is incredibly slow with little lateral movement and no real guile to his game. Elliott Whitehead has found himself across the tryline a lot of late. Whitehead has four tries in six games since returning from injury and can score again this week against a Storm team that is uncharacteristically leaking big scores.
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