Round 16 kicks off with an absolute belter between Top 4 teams the Dolphins and the Storm and there is plenty of value about the home team here.
Best Bet
We have a barn burner to open the Origin-shortened Round 16 with the Dolphins hosting the Storm in an all-Top 4 affair.
Both teams have some stars missing with the Dolphins without Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Felise Kaufusi while the Storm will be without Harry Grant and Xavier Coates.
The Storm do welcome back superstar Ryan Papenhuyzen though, much to the delight of every fan in the game.
The Dolphins have been underrated all season and continue to be undervalued here.
They are 9-5 ATS in Queensland as an underdog of at least a try while they are 10-4 ATS off conceding 26-plus.
When Top 4 teams meet and there is a home underdog, that home dog covers at 57%.
The Storm do tend to hold form when their attack fires, covering 17 of 26 off scoring 36-plus. This is a tough spot for Melbourne though. Teams on back-to-back interstate games cover at 44% while the Storm are 4-8 ATS when an interstate favourite. They are also 5-12 ATS in night games.
There has been some money for the Dolphins and they do look a smart bet getting a nice start at home.
Insights
🐬 Dolphins’ Underdog Edge: The Dolphins have been resilient as underdogs, winning seven of their last eight matches when not favoured.
🏈 Line Performance: When given a +4.5 line, the Dolphins have a stellar record, covering in each of their last seven matches against top four opponents.
🆚 Melbourne Against Top Teams: Despite Melbourne’s overall high-scoring trend, their matches against top 8 teams have generally been lower-scoring, with only two of their last nine such games going over the total, while seven have gone under.
Same Game Multi
Ryan Papenhuyzen has 53 tries in 62 NRL starts and has to be included in any SGM.
Jack Bostock has 11 tries in 13 games this year and can take advantage of the weakness in the Storm defensive line.
Trai Fuller is a sublimely talented fullback who has three tries in six games at the top level.
Value Bet
Max Plath is having a secretly sensational season and he is an underrated tryscorer. He scored first last week, making it four tries in 12 NRL games. He scored 16 tries in 32 Queensland Cup games so he can find the tryline.
Follow Betseeker for weekly expert NRL tips and predictions for the 2024 NRL season.
