The Broncos and Storm are going to roll it out again after meeting last week and given Melbourne’s dominance over Brisbane it is stunning they are such big outsiders.
Best Bet
These teams met last week and even though both teams were missing most of their starting teams, it was stunning to see Melbourne start such a notable outsider. What was not stunning was the win: they saluted 32-22 and continued their run of dominance over the Broncos.
Melbourne have won 31 of the last 35 clashes against Brisbane including winning the last 14. The Storm have covered 13 of those 14. They have won the last 13 at Suncorp including a 60-12 win last year. They have scored 40-plus in five of their last eight.
These two also have a long history of finals matches. These teams have met four times in finals matches since the 2006 decider between the two and Melbourne have won all four, three by big margins.
It will be fascinating to see how Craig Bellamy uses Ryan Papenhuyzen but there is no question that his inclusion boosts the entire team.
This is a great spot for the Storm. Melbourne are 36-20 against the spread off a win of 10 or more points while they are 28-14 ATS off scoring 30-plus. The Storm are 15-9 ATS off conceding 22 or more.
Brisbane have ascended fast this year but whether that holds up in finals football remains to be seen. They have covered just 11 of 28 against Top 4 teams and just six of 17 at Suncorp.
Confidence is very high that Melbourne will not only cover but win well.
Same Game Multi
Will Warbrick has been in outstanding tryscoring form with five tries in his last four games. He scored a double in his only game against the Broncos.
Selwyn Cobbo has 19 tries in 21 games and comes off a hat-trick. He is an electric player who should be all over Xavier Coates.
Value Bet
Eli Katoa has been in sublime tryscoring form. Since returning from injury he has five tries in five games, scoring in four of those. The Storm have scored 37-plus in five of their last seven. The Storm use their edges as well as any team in the competition and if the Broncos have one vulnerability it is their edge defence.
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