After a gripping and controversial (to some) Test at Lord’s, Australia are well-placed to secure an Ashes series win at Headingley.
Head-to-Head
Lost amongst the hysterical and hypocritical reaction to Alex Carey’s stumping of Jonny Bairstow is that England have now largely been outplayed in consecutive home Tests by Australia.
Ironically that dismissal was one of the few things that haven’t gone England’s way this series.
They’ve won both coin tosses (about a 16% advantage in win percentage this century) and had the best of the bowling conditions on pitch types they’ve requested.
They faced Australia for an innings and a half at Lord’s without a spinner after Nathan Lyon suffered his first injury in 100 matches.
They got lucky on Mitch Starc’s non-catch which should have seen Ben Duckett out 35 runs earlier and Steve Smith inexplicably dropping a sitter which should have seen Ben Stokes out 40 runs earlier.
They benefited from some utter stupidity from the bowlers on Day 5 who kept bowling pies to Ben Stokes which were dispatched for nine sixes all to the same side of the ground and all from the same end.
Australia still lead two-nil.
After sending the visitors in on a green deck under cloudy skies in the second Test, England’s attack was largely impotent as Pat Cummins’ team piled on 416. The Aussies have only lost 6 of 74 Tests this century when they hit 400+ runs in the first innings. History suggests the match was over after a day and a half, save for Ben Stokes’ heroics.
The short turnaround to Headingley won’t suit their aging and/or underdone bowlers, who all entered this series off either no cricket and/or a ‘Test’ against Ireland and a week of golf. Expect changes to be made, with Mark Wood a good chance to replace Jimmy Anderson who could be rested for his home Test at Old Trafford. Moeen Ali is also reportedly fit to play, although it remains to be seen whether his finger can stand up to Test cricket after more than 18 months out of this form of the game. Ollie Pope has been ruled out of the series and will be replaced by Dan Lawrence.
Nathan Lyon is a big loss for Australia but Todd Murphy showed in India that he is at least a capable replacement, while Josh Hazlewood is a chance to be rotated for Scott Boland. Part-timers Joe Root and Travis Head both took wickets at Lord’s so spin should be a factor here given Jack Leach took 10 against New Zealand at this venue last year, even if it is just as catching practice in the outfield. The rest of the line-up should be unchanged.
‘Bazball’ has landed a few blows in the first two Tests but England remain a flawed cricket team. Their batters refuse to relent when the conditions dictate they should, they bowl too many no balls and they are playing the worst wicketkeeper in living memory. In two close Tests so far, those flaws have made all the difference.
Australia fumbled the opportunity to win their first Ashes series in England for more than 20 years at Headingley in 2019. With some even luck with the coin and in the field, expect them to outplay England again and close out the series.
Same Game Multi
Steve Smith looks at his incredible best is coming off a Player of the Match award at Lord’s while Travis Head has scored fifties in each of his first innings so far.
Stuart Broad has been the pick of the English quicks and has 3+ wickets in three of his four innings.
Value Bets
This market has been a crapshoot for England so far with four different players scoring the most runs in four innings: Joe Root, Harry Brook (tied with Root in the second innings at Edgbaston), Ben Duckett and Ben Stokes. Brook and Crawley were second and third for most runs in the first knock at Lord’s and are good plays at big prices here.
Head was second to Steve Smith for this award in the Second Test for Australia after 77 from 73 balls in the first innings plus a couple of wickets with the ball. As we discussed in the Lord’s preview, the South Australian averages the second-most Player of the Match awards in cricket history, only behind Pakistani legend Wasim Akram. Getting double the price of Smith is terrific value.
