After yet another thrilling Test, The Ashes moves to Old Trafford with Australia holding a 2-1 advantage over England.
Head-to-Head
Australia remain the bet in Manchester although there is a real threat of rain spoiling this extraordinary series.
After three Tests, England have an aggregate score of 55 wickets for 1809 runs while Australia are 58/1850. There’s very little between these sides, however the Poms have been incredibly fortunate to win all three coin tosses which over the last decade results in 30% more wins than losses (199W / 153L).
In such a close series, Australia’s stronger fundamentals give them the edge. England’s dropped catches have cost them well over 100 runs and they’ve conceded nearly 50 more extras. Jonny Bairstow continues to hold his place as wicketkeeper despite his inability to keep wickets while Alex Carey is having a brilliant series behind the stumps.
England’s ‘Bazball’ approach has certainly rattled the visitors at stages but it also puts a ceiling on their scoring against a quality attack. There’s only so long you can belt elite quicks like Cummins, Starc and Hazlewood before a mistake is made and surely there’s only so many more heroics left in Ben Stokes. The solution seems to be to adding more batting to the line-up, but Moeen Ali remaining at number three reeks of desperation rather than bravado.
Despite holding a 2-1 series lead, upside remains in Australia’s batting. Smith and Labuschagne arrived in the motherland as top five batsmen in the world yet are averaging 32 and 24 this series. Both threw away their wickets in the second innings at Headingly but a more batter-friendly wicket at Old Trafford could see them finally hit their stride. Smith averages over 100 from his four innings at this venue too. Josh Hazlewood should also return in place of Scott Boland, who has struggled on this tour.
The caveat on all of this is a very gloomy weather forecast in Manchester with days four and five in particular in danger of complete washout. With the home side needing a win to keep their hopes of winning the Ashes alive, England could tilt from aggressive to reckless in search of victory while Australia can play out a draw if conditions dictate.
England have won four straight Tests at Old Trafford but they haven’t beaten the Aussies there since 1981. Back the visitors to win here but keep an eye on the forecast closer to the start.
Same Game Multi
We’ll leave the result out given the weather forecast. Travis Head continues to do the damage in the first innings, where he’s hit 166 runs this series. Zak Crawley has also passed 30 in each of his first digs.
Stuart Broad has the most wickets for the series, including 3+ in four of six innings, and is likely to get Warner as usual. Starc’s pace has really troubled the Poms and he’s had the most wickets per innings at 3.25.
Value Bets
Stokes continues to be the thorn in Australia’s collective shoe this series and he has a great record at this venue with an average of 52 from seven Tests including two tons. Root looks a false favourite after not passing 21 in his last four innings.
We’ll keep backing Travis Head who has been particularly good in first innings with two fifties and a 39 which could be important if the rain plays spoiler later in the match. The South Australian averages the second most player of the match awards in Test history, only behind Wasim Akram, with six from his 40 matches.
