The chase for the AFL’s top individual award, the Brownlow Medal, has become one of the best betting events of the year.
Punters have flocked to the ever-growing list of Brownlow markets on offer including club leaders, handicaps, exotics and head to heads.
However, the outright market is still where most of the focus lies and below we’ve got our top 10 tips to help you find the Brownlow 2024 winner.
You can also check out Betseeker’s exclusive Brownlow Predictor for a weekly tally of the likely contenders for this year’s big award.
Brownlow Medal 2024 Tips
1. Only back midfielders
This should be very, very obvious to even the most casual of AFL observers, but do not even consider backing anyone other than midfielders for the Brownlow.
It’s been 32 years since ruckman Scott Wynd won the award, the last non-midfielder (or non-utility if we’re getting technical in the case of Adam Goodes) to top the count.
It doesn’t matter how many goals a forward kicks, or how many spoils a defender gets, they will not win!
2. The kids are alright
Youth historically prevails on Brownlow night.
The average age of Brownlow winners since 2000 is 24.88 years and only two players aged 30 or older have taken home Charlie (Nathan Buckley at 30 in 2003 and Lachie Neale in 2023).
The youngest winner this century was 20-year-old Chris Judd in 2004.
3. Winners aren’t always top draft picks
While there has been five Brownlow winners who were drafted in the top 10 since 2010, there has been a fair share of later picks who have saluted too.
Lachie Neale (Pick 58 – twice), Dane Swan (also 58) and Sam Mitchell (36) were all brilliant picks by their club’s respective recruiting teams.
Then there is Matt Priddis.
The shock winner of the 2014 Brownlow was pick 31 in the 2005 Rookie Draft – the 97th player chosen that year.
Adam Cooney is the only number one pick to win a Brownlow (2008).
4. Injuries cost votes
Every opportunity to collect votes counts in the Brownlow race.
Brownlow winners have only missed 0.8 games on average since 2000.
Remarkably, Nat Fyfe won the 2015 count by three votes despite missing 4 of 22 games through injury. Nick Daicos’ late season injury almost certainly cost him the medal in 2023.
Of course, any suspension results in that player being ruled ineligible, so take care when backing anyone with a long tribunal record as well.
5. Winning teams win Brownlows
The lion’s share of the six available votes each game of course go to the most influential players in a winning team.
Consequentially, the average ladder position of the Brownlow winner’s team since 2000 is 4.56.
Only four of the last 26 players to win the Brownlow did not play in a team that made finals that year, with Gary Ablett the lowest in 2013 when his Suns finished 14th.
No player from a bottom four team has won the Brownlow this century.
6. Contested possessions count
Players under the umpires’ eyes in the guts have typically performed very well of late.
The last ten Brownlow winners have all been ranked top ten for average contested possessions per game (last ten if you’re still counting Jobe Watson’s 2012 ‘win’).
Cunning punters may have spotted Ollie Wines (2021) and Priddis (2015) high in this ranking early in their respective winning years and backed them at big odds (Ollie Wines was $81 in Round 4, 2021 despite being top five in the AFL for average contested possessions).
Keep an eye out for any surprises early in 2024 for this stat.
7. Goals are less important
While goals may help a midfielder poll votes in individual games, Brownlow winners have not been high scorers of late.
Only three of the last 11 winners have averaged more than a goal per game (Martin 2018, Dangerfield 2016, Ablett 2013).
Wines booted just nine goals in 2021 – the fewest of any Brownlow winner since Sam Mitchell in 2012.
8. Stick to the standouts
Be wary of single teams with multiple top contenders.
Only two of the last eleven Brownlow winners have had a teammate finish top ten in the same year: Fyfe (2015 – Mundy, Eq. 8th) and Wines (2021 – Boak, Eq. 7th).
Brownlow winners in the last 10 years have won 39% of their team’s votes on average so they can not afford to have single teammates recording too many of their team’s votes.
9. Favourites firing recently
Seven of the last eleven Brownlow favourites have taken Charlie home.
Only Nat Fyfe ($7.00, 2019) and Matt Priddis ($17, 2015) have not been the top pick entering Brownlow night in that time.
This is a change from the period between 2000 and 2011, where only four favourites were victorious (including Nathan Buckley in a three way tie in 2003).
10. Only back midfielders
This needs repeating. Midfielders only!
