AFL Tips – St Kilda v Port Adelaide – Round 16 2024

The Power have lost three straight and will be desperate to get their campaign back on track against the Saints on Sunday at Marvel.

Best Bet

Port +5.5
Line

Port Adelaide have a great opportunity to get back on track against a side they have dominated in recent years.

These sides met in Round 7 which was a win for the Power. It was only a ten point margin, but the scoreline of 11.16 to 11.6 speaks volumes.

The Power have now won 13 of their last 14 against the Saints with the only loss being in 2020. Generally the margins have been narrow but it’s a remarkable level of head to head dominance given they enter as outsiders.

Port also have a real liking for Marvel Stadium, having won nine of their last ten visits to the roofed stadium. The Saints home ground has hardly been a fortress this season, having lost three of their five games with the only wins coming over North and Gold Coast.

The Power are a strong bet as outsiders in this one.

Insights

Port Adelaide Recent Form: Port has struggled recently, with only 1 win in their last 6 games and failing to cover the line in their last 4.

🏟️ St Kilda at Docklands: Playing at Docklands, St Kilda has seen low-scoring games, with 8 of their last 9 games going under the total points line.

🤝 Head-to-Head: In matchups between St Kilda and Port Adelaide, low-scoring games have been a trend, with 7 of the last 9 games going under the total points line.


Same Game Multi

Port +5.5, Wanganeen-Milera, Houston 25+, Farrell 20+ Disposals

The Saints tend to concede high numbers of disposals to ball handling defenders so Dan Houston and Kane Farrell fit the bill.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has had 25 or more in six of seven.

All these players hit those numbers when these sides met in Round 7.


Value Bet

Port Adelaide by 1 to 20
Full Time 20 Point Margins

The Saints don’t tend to get blown out much and these sides have a strong record of close games. The close win for Port looks nice value.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.