Port Adelaide get an opportunity for a percentage booster when they host Hawthorn on Sunday at the Adelaide Oval.
Best Bet
The Power at home against bad opposition has just been money in recent years.
Ken Hinkley’s team have covered the line in seven of nine at the Adelaide Oval against bottom four teams, winning by an average of 37 points.
This includes a 55 point win over the Hawks at home last year which could have been much worse, with the Power leading by 82 points at half time before the visitors pegged the margin back in dead time.
For all the talk of Hawthorn’s improvement under Sam Mitchell, they continue to find themselves on the wrong end of big losses. They had the second-biggest average losing margin (42.1 pts) in 2023 and already have lost four games by more than the 31.5 point line in 2024 to Sydney, Gold Coast, Melbourne and Geelong.
The Hawks also continue to be without their captain and best defender in James Sicily while another important backman in Jack Scrimshaw will also miss this week through suspension.
Port were sensational against the Cats last week and should pile on the pain again in this one.
Insights
🛣️ Hawthorn Away Games: Hawthorn has successfully covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 away games
🔄 Port Adelaide Post-Win: Despite winning, Port Adelaide struggles to cover the spread post-victory, achieving cover just twice in their last 9 games following a win.
🔄 Hawthorn Post-Win: Following a win, Hawthorn’s next games have consistently gone under the total, with no overs in the last 4 such instances.
Same Game Multi
Port’s forward line should have a field day against Hawthorn’s decimated defence.
Ollie Wines racked up 33 last week with Conor Rozee out so expect the Brownlow Medalist to have another big game.
Value Bet
Port can be a little flaky but if they’re on they can win this by as much as they want to.
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