It’s a vital four points on offer for the Dogs on Saturday at Marvel as they look to improve their top eight prospects against a resurgent North Melbourne.
Best Bet
All signs point to the over in this one, even with an enormous total.
These two teams play in the highest-scoring games of any two teams this year, with Dogs games averaging a combined 180 points and the Roos, 179.5.
The Doggies’ last four games average a mammoth 197 points, including their 231-point shootout against Freo two weeks back.
The Roos played the defensively stout Dees last week, which impacted the scoring, but their thrilling game prior against the Pies totaled 237 points at Marvel.
North has conceded 100+ points to 12 of 14 opponents this year, only giving up fewer to the Eagles and Dees in the past three games, teams ranked 16th and 18th for points scored in 2024.
They will struggle to contain the Dogs’ triple towers with Aaron Naughton and Sam Darcy set to return. And while Jackson Archer has been an effective stopper in recent weeks and will likely get Cody Weightman, other smalls like Rhylee West and their second-best goalkicker for 2024, Marcus Bontempelli, are likely to cause headaches.
At the other end, North has found their offensive mojo largely thanks to their improved performance around the pill, which provides their forwards with more opportunities. They are ranked second for clearance differential over the last five games.
The last four games between these teams have cleared the total, with an average combined score of 199 points. The Dogs’ last six at Marvel have also gone over.
Bring on the goals.
Insights
🏠 North Melbourne’s Home Games: North Melbourne has seen high-scoring games at home, with 6 of their last 7 and 7 of their last 9 going over the total points line.
🔺 Bulldogs Post-Win Struggles: The Bulldogs have had difficulty maintaining momentum, winning just one of their last seven games following a win and failing to cover the line in their last four.
🔄 High-Scoring Clashes: Meetings between these teams tend to be high-scoring. Their last four clashes have all gone over the total points line.
Same Game Multi
Expect LDU to continue his white form, he’s had 25+ in six straight while Bailey Dale has done same in seven straight with the Dogs as favourites.
Rhylee West has scored a goal in 11 straight games and Harry Sheezel has six goals in his last four as he enjoys more time in a mid-forward role.
Value Bet
The Bont has been pressing forward and having a real impact in front of the sticks, booting 10 goals in his last four including 3+ in each of his last two. He also loves this match-up, scoring 3+ in each of his last two games against North.
As above, this game has points written all over it.
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