It’s not quite the final round blockbuster the AFL envisioned this Friday night but Collingwood still need a win against Essendon to guarantee top spot.
Best Bet
The over looks an excellent play with both of these teams struggling defensively.
Essendon’s defence remains as big a mess this year as it was under Ben Rutten, with the Bombers only improving from 16th to 15th for points conceded in 2023. They’ve conceded more than 90 points in five of their last seven games, only giving up fewer against the bottom two teams in the competition in West Coast and North Melbourne. Last week they conceded 162 points to GWS in one of the most deplorable efforts by any team in recent years.
The Pies, too, are struggling to contain their opposition, conceding 100+ points in three straight games and 80+ in five straight. In the last three weeks they also rank last for goals against per inside 50%, opposition shot accuracy, defensive 50 pressure and contested possession differential. That has coincided with Darcy Moore’s absence in the last two games, as well as Nathan Murphy’s injury issues. He remains in doubt to line up this week.
The MCG has been a haven for overs punters in 2023 with 60% of 88 matches clearing the total, including 9 of the last 11 Friday night games. The last six Collingwood games have also gone over.
Everything points to plenty of goals on Friday night at the ‘G.
Same Game Multi
Overs means goals and fortunately we have a group of consistent forwards to get around here.
Dan McStay has kicked exactly two goals in six straight games and will get a favourable match-up this week. Jamie Elliot has kicked 2+ in eight of his last nine games.
‘Two Metre’ Peter has kicked 2+ in four of his last five games at the MCG and may benefit from a sore or absent Nathan Murphy. Kyle Langford has kicked 2+ in five straight.
Value Bet
Will this finally be the week for McStay? The former Lion has booted exactly two goals in six straight games without kicking three. Essendon have struggled against tall forwards all year, typified by Jesse Hogan’s nine last week, so McStay could finally cash in here.
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