The Giants and Lions meet on Saturday night in Sydney with a preliminary final against Geelong the reward for the victor.
Best Bet
The Giants were outstanding last week against Sydney and are the pick to advance to the final four.
It took one of the all-time great finals performances from Isaac Heeney to get the Swans over the line in a game the Giants controlled for most of the afternoon. Expected score had them winning by 11 points.
As we saw in three of last week’s four finals, September footy is typically high-pressure and chaotic. Brisbane, however, were fortunate to play in the one final that defied that trend, as Carlton struggled to apply any defensive pressure, allowing them to execute their possession-based kicking game with ease.
That won’t be the case this week. According to Champion Data, GWS is the best pressure team in the competition, while the Lions rank 16th.
Adam Kingsley’s men have won both of their meetings with Brisbane this season. While much was made of the Lions’ inaccuracy in their Round 22 loss—where they kicked 8.16 to GWS’s 13.4—this has been a recurring issue for Brisbane in 2024, as they rank 15th for accuracy, while the Giants sit second.
Toby Bedford returns for GWS and will likely clamp down on Lachie Neale, while Brisbane remain unchanged despite injury concerns around Jack Payne. A late withdrawal could open the door for a big night for Jesse Hogan.
Tipping the bounce-back from a qualifying final loss has been a winning strategy for years, with week 1 losers claiming 37 of 48 semi-finals since 2000.
Expect that trend to continue here.
INSIGHTS
📈 GWS Giants as Favourites: GWS Giants have won 5 of their last 6 games when starting as favourites.
💼 Brisbane Lions Recent Form: The last 7 Brisbane Lions games have gone under the total points line.
✈️ Brisbane Lions Away: Brisbane Lions have won 5 of their last 6 away games, including 3 by 40+ points.
Same Game Multi
Brisbane don’t play a tagger so expect Tom Green to rack up 30+ for the tenth time in eleven matches at ENGIE Stadium. Brent Daniels has had 15+ in ten straight at the venue too.
Smalls are the better bet for goals in finals and Kai Lohmann looks the best value to snag one. He’s kicked seven in his last three games.
Value Bet
Finals are increasingly being dominated by small forwards, with high pressure creating messier entries into the forward 50.
Toby Greene has been off his game lately and faces a tough matchup against Starcevich, making Toby Bedford the best option for the Giants. Bedford kicked three goals in the final home-and-away game of the season.
Lohmann fits the bill for the Lions, with seven goals in his last three games.
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