It doesn’t get much bigger than the Magpies against the Bombers on a Friday night at the MCG with both teams fighting for a top eight position.
Best Bet
Taking on Essendon when playing the AFL’s best continues to be a great betting angle.
As we’ve frequently discussed, the Bombers’ record against top eight teams is awful, sitting at 0-4-1 this year with a percentage of 67. Their top four standing is due to wins against teams currently ranked 13th, 15th, 9th, 14th, 16th, 10th, 18th, 17th and 16th. Their 13th-best percentage of 99.91% is a far more accurate representation of where they sit in 2024.
The Magpies are 3-1-2 with a percentage of 108 against the top eight with wins over Carlton, Brisbane and Port, as well as draws with Freo (away) and the Dons.
Essendon dominated around the ball on ANZAC Day, winning contested possession 134-113 and clearances 40-23 but they couldn’t turn that into a winning score. Expect things to be tighter this week as the Bombers’ clearance and contested possession differential numbers have fallen right away since then, sitting 13th for both stats over the last five weeks.
Battles between these two fierce rivals are often tight, and Essendon have covered in 15 of 20 against the Pies as outsiders, so the line of 10.5 looks a dicey play.
But Collingwood are the default bet in a close finish, winning 12 of 16 games decided by two goals or less, including eight of nine against top eight teams, so the 1-39 is the bet in this one.
Insights
⚔️ Collingwood vs Essendon: In their last 7 matchups, Collingwood has only achieved 1 cover against Essendon.
🔻 Essendon Recent Performance: In the last 8 games, Essendon has only achieved 1 cover.
🚫 Essendon Away Performance: In the last 9 games away, Essendon has only achieved 2 covers.
Same Game Multi
The Pies don’t tag and seem content to let Merrett run around racking up disposals. He’s had 30+ in four straight in this match-up including three 35+ tallies.
Jordan De Goey has had 20+ in eight of his last nine against Essendon
Nick Daicos has seven goals in his last four games.
Value Bet
Our favourite bet in Collingwood games, having saluted in four of their eight wins this year. Continues to deliver.
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