Collingwood have been backed in to AFL premiership favouritism and are also favoured in the Round 4 opener in Brisbane against a struggling Lions outfit.
Best Bet
This looks a really bad match-up for Brisbane.
The Pies have been an offensive juggernaut to start 2023, averaging the second-most points of any team at 108 per game, even including their inaccurate performance against Richmond last week. Champion Data’s expected scoring had them recording 81 points instead of 63 and a 29-point win rather than 14 points.
Brisbane’s forward line is horribly out of sorts. Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood aren’t working as a tall combination, scoring just seven goals combined, while Charlie Cameron is averaging only a goal per game. The Lions are ranked 14th for points scored at just 73 per game.
The Gabba lends itself to shootouts, with 67% of matches since 2021 going over the total, so we should see plenty of goals here. If that occurs, there’s just no way this Brisbane offence on current form can compete with Collingwood, who have covered the line in each of their last six matches.
Same Game Multi
As mentioned, the Gabba is the best venue for totals going over and even this massive total should be cleared.
Josh Daicos and Jordan DeGoey are averaging 27 and 24 disposals respectively in 2023.
Bobby Hill has five goals from three games and looks a much more dangerous player at Collingwood than at GWS.
Value Bet
Brisbane have already lost by 40+ points once this season and while they don’t lose by big margins at home often, if there’s one team who can do it, it’s Collingwood.
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