AFL Grand Final 2024 Tips – Norm Smith Medal Predictions

The Norm Smith Medal is given to the player judged best on ground in the Grand Final and is always a hotly debated award, as well as providing plenty of opportunity from a punting perspective. Here are our picks for the Norm Smith Medal.

Norm Smith Medal History

Punters can absolutely get a leg up on the bookies with a quick look at how the Norm Smith Medal has been awarded previously.

1. Back the mids

Like every other major AFL award, the midfielders have dominated the Norm Smith Medal, particularly in recent years. Prior to Bobby Hill’s win last year, the last six awards went to mids – including three to Richmond star Dustin Martin – as well as 16 of the 25 this century.

2. Experience counts

Since 2000, only 5 of the 25 Norm Smith Medalists had played fewer than 100 games prior to winning the award – Chris Judd (2005), Steve Johnson (2007), Scott Pendlebury (2010), Jason Johannisen (2016) and Bobby Hill (2024). Judd was also the youngest winner this century at 21 years old.

3. Avoid the talls

The Norm Smith Medal has been awarded in every Grand Final since 1979. Remarkably, just two award winners have been taller than 192cm in that time – Brian Lake in 2015 and Simon Madden all the way back in 1985.

4. Hit the scoreboard

A player’s Norm Smith Medal chances increase if they are able to jag a goal in the Grand Final. The last five winners have all kicked a snag and since 2000, just 6 of 24 have not kicked a goal. Bobby Hill’s four goals in an even side last year proved decisive in the judge’s minds.

5. Winners get medals

Obviously the winning team is much more likely to produce the best player on the ground, so if you are leaning toward one team to win, it’s probably where your should be putting your hard-earned for the Norm. Only four players since 1979 have won the award in a losing team, with Judd in 2005 the most recent.

Norm Smith Medal Tips

With a goal-kicking experienced midfielder from the winning team the profile for a Norm Smith Medalist, let’s look at a few tips for this year’s award.

Sydney

Isaac Heeney

Norm Smith Medal

$5.00

Isaac Heeney fits the Norm Smith archetype to a tee. Goal kicking midfielder in outstanding form – he was clear best on ground in both the qualifying and preliminary finals. He almost certainly has to play well for the Swans to win. Clearly he is well found in the market, but understandably so.

Chad Warner

Norm Smith Medal

$7.50

Apologies for the obvious two candidates, but if Heeney doesn’t win it, it’s hard to imagine that Warner won’t – if the Swans win the game. They are both the embodiment of the type of player who wins the award, and at least one of them has to be near best on ground if the Swans are to win. Warner had a great Grand Final in 2022 with 29 disposals and two goals.

Brisbane

Hugh McCluggage

Norm Smith Medal

$15

The player affectionately known as ‘The Suitcase’ was one of the Lions best in last year’s decider, with 21 disposals and two goals. He had a welcome return to goal scoring form last week against Geelong, and as a proven commodity on the big stage should be right in the mix again.

Will Ashcroft

Norm Smith Medal

$19

Ashcroft doesn’t meet some our desired criteria in terms of experience but what the second year has been able to do since returning from an ACL tear this year has been nothing short of remarkable. The son of premiership player Marcus has also kicked three behinds in his last two games, so he is generating some scoring opportunities.

Previous AFL Norm Smith Medal Winners