We are down to the final two with the Storm and Panthers squaring off for premiership glory at Accor Stadium, a matchup four years in the making between the best five-year team since the great Rabbitohs team of the late 1960s and early 1970s and the best 20-year team arguably ever.
| Market | Preview |
|---|---|
| Tryscorers | Tryscorers Tips |
| Clive Churchill Medal | Clive Churchill Medal Tips |
| NRLW Grand Final | Norm Smith Medal Tips |
| State Championship | State Championship Tips |
Best Bet
This is the Grand Final everybody wanted.
Penrith have been historic in reaching their fifth straight decider, the first team in over 50 years to do so. Craig Bellamy is set to coach his 11th decider, keeping the Storm relevant for two decades.
It is no lock that the two dominant teams of an era will meet on the last weekend of the season but we are blessed this year to have the two in a matchup for the ages.
The Storm finished the season on top with the Panthers second. Most importantly though Penrith finished with the best defensive record while Melbourne finished fourth.
Only the 2005 Wests Tigers and the 2015 North Queensland Cowboys have won the premiership ranking fourth or worse in defence and neither played a Top two defensive team. Since 2006, 12 No.1 defensive teams have the 18 premierships.
The Storm won both meetings with the Panthers this year but Penrith had excuses in both. They played in Round 1 when the Panthers were off returning from England after the World Club Challenge while they were completely stitched up by the officiating in Round 24.
In the last eight meetings, the Storm have been held to eight or fewer five times while the Panthers have scored 22-plus in five. Penrith won the last finals meeting between the two 38-4.
Penrith have been unstoppable in finals. They have covered seven of eight finals – just missing out in last year’s Grand Final – while they have held opponents to 12 or fewer in nine of 10 finals.
The Panthers have covered six of eight at Accor and they are 21-11 ATS against Top 4 teams.
They have the Grand Final experience. They want to send one of their favourite sons out a winner. They have a superior pack and fewer obvious weaknesses.
Penrith are a bet and a very good one.
Insights
📈 Grand Final Dogs: Favourites have covered just three of the last nine Grand Finals. 💪
🏟️ Penrith Big-Time Performers: Penrith have covered seven of their last eight finals matches. 🔥
🔑 Penrith at a Price: The Panthers have covered nine of the last 12 when starting at $1.80 or longer. 🏅
Same Game Multi
As noted above, Penrith are an exceptionally strong bet to win. They should win and it would not surprise if they won big.
First halves have been the lower scoring halves of late in deciders and both teams will likely feel each other out early.
Penrith don’t concede big scores in finals and the 20.5 line for the Storm is ridiculously big.
Value Bet
Three times in the last decade there has been a differential of three ranking positions for defence between the two teams, as we have this year with the Panthers ranking 1st and the Storm 4th. The Panthers beat the Eels by 16 in 2022. The Storm smashed the Cowboys by 28 in 2017. Souths pumped the Bulldogs 30-6 in 2014. Betting suggests this will be close but it would not surprise if Penrith run away with this.
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