Warrnambool races hosts four jumping races on Monday with the Open Steeplechase over 3450m being the highlight.
Race 1 – Dwyer Legal Maiden Hurdle, 3200m
Grand Promenade is a $1.50 favourite in early betting and it’s not hard to see why – he did start $3.50 in a Group 3 race in Adelaide last start. The price seems short enough to me though as there are some talented enough types to keep things competitive. Gambu wasn’t bad on his debut here a couple of weeks ago and is value to cause an upset.
Strategy: Back Gambu small.
Race 2 – Davidson Earthmoving Maiden Hurdle, 3200m
A well credentialled debutant dominates the betting here in Irish Butterfly. Not hard to see why he is fancied. The value lies with Whisky Mac. He trialled nicely for this and his debut run last year was better than it reads on paper as he had the stuffing knocked out of him at the second last hurdle.
Strategy: Back Whisky Mac.
Race 3 – Star Printing BM120 Hurdle, 3200m
Interesting field with the complicating factor that the three key runners – Count Zero, Abreed and Pure Deal – are first up. Any of those could win without surprising, but the value here lies with those that have some race fitness, in particular the veteran El Diez (ran second to San Remo (!) in this race last year, and That’s Incranibull from the Patrick Payne stable.
Strategy: Back El Diez and That’s Incranibull.
Race 5 – Creece Glass & Glazing BM120 Steeple, 3450m
Two years ago Budd Fox shaped as one of the most exciting talents in steeplechase racing. He’s clearly had some issues since then but his recent trial suggest he is back to his best form. If he is, he will win. The main danger is Serenade The Stars. He was brought down through no fault of his own last time out, this is his first go at the bigger fences but he trialled well over them the day after his incident.
Strategy: Back Budd Fox and save on Serenade The Stars.
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