The NRL kicks off its 2024 season in Las Vegas with a famous double-header that lays a marker in the United States and sets forth the league’s global strategy of winning the hearts and minds and dollars of Americans.
Best Bet
Manly and South Sydney kick off the 2024 NRL season with an historic match in Las Vegas, the first premiership match played on American soil.
It is an incredibly important match in the history of the game – and for the balance of sport in Australia – where Rugby League launches itself as the only relevant football code in the country with an international presence.
It is incredibly important for both teams with Manly and Souths missing the finals last season.
The Sea Eagles have won just 20 of their last 48 games and missed the finals the last two years. Souths were premiership favourites midway through last season before collapsing to remarkably miss the finals.
Both teams have personnel missing. Manly will be without the suspended Tof Sipley and the out-of-shape Josh Schuster while Souths have been decimated in their outside backs with Jack Wighton suspended and Campbell Graham and Tyrone Munro injured. Cody Walker will be named but is no certainty.
Underdogs win at 58% in Round 1 and Manly’s record with Tom Trbojevic v without him (60% v 35%) point to a Manly win but Souths have won seven straight in this contest and there is a huge coaching and organisational edge that Souths bring to this one.
If there is one angle that has become extraordinarily popular – and profitable – in Round 1 it is betting up on the under.
Since 2008, the under has hit at nearly 57% in Round 1 games. Across the last two seasons, the under is a remarkable 13-3. In night games across the last 15 years, the under lobs at a highly impressive 63.6%.
Factored in with this opener being played on a field that is six metres narrower, four metres shorter and have significantly smaller in-goals, this has under written all over it.
Same Game Multi
There is a very strong case to be made for the under in this one and on a narrow field, this could go real low.
Alex Johnston has 14 tries in 15 games against Manly and could run down Ken Irvine’s long-standing tryscoring record this season with big year.
Value Bet
Cody Walker has a devastating recent record against Manly with six tries in the last four meetings against the club. He has an excellent tryscoring record with 91 tries in 191 games and comes off his worst tryscoring season, finishing on the worst drought of his career with just one try in his last eight games. He will look to run more this year and with less room it will be down to players like Walker to break the game open.
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