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Baltimore finished with the No.1 seed in the AFC but they will not get a cakewalk when they host rookie sensation CJ Stroud and his Houston Texans.
Best Bet
Baltimore unquestionably enter this divisional round contest with Houston as the better credentialed team but all angles point to a Texans cover.
Let’s start off with the bye in playoffs. It is not necessarily a huge advantage and is nearly always over-egged in terms of betting. Teams off a bye in the playoffs 35-54-1 against the spread.
Teams playing in consecutive playoff series against teams who didn’t make the playoffs the year prior have covered just six of 21 with road teams who missed the playoffs last year 27-13 ATS in their last 40 full stop.
Lamar is also in a huge lay spot.
He is a tremendous talent but has a dire record as a big favourite, covering just one of his last nine when favoured by more than a touchdown. He has also struggled off long rest, covering just one of seven when getting rest of 12 or more days.
This number is just too big.
Same Game Multi
Gus Edwards has 12 touchdowns in his last 11 games and will remain the Ravens’ goalline option even with Dalvin Cook signing.
Nico Collins has 22 catches on 24 targets this January with two touchdowns – and is clearly the top Texans weapon.
Value Bet
Quarterbacks run more in the playoffs – it is a truism as old as the Super Bowl. They are happier to put their bodies on the line and they are willing to minimise risk. That makes an active runner like CJ Stroud an outstanding bet to score. He made an early run last week at the line when the Texans were close and he does have three TDs on the ground this year. Great bet.
