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We have an AFC West battle on Thursday Night Football when the struggling Denver Broncos square off with the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead.
Best Bet
Denver have been nothing short of awful this year as the return of Sean Payton to the NFL has gone anyway but expected. They are in an excellent spot here though to cover.
Double digit division underdogs in the first eight weeks of the season are 51-30-4 ATS. Road underdogs who don’t make the playoffs cover at just under 56%.
Thursday has been a graveyard for home teams on Thursday Night Football with teams playing on familiar turf just 21-35 ATS.
While Denver have been historically bad defensively, this is not a spot Patrick Mahomes projects to explode in. Mahomes has covered just 10 of 24 as a double digit favourite and 7-12 against the number off a win.
The number here is just way too high.
Same Game Multi
Isiah Pacheco has 15+ carries in each of his last three games and has scored in each of those.
Jaleel McLaughlin has scored in three of the Broncos’ last four games with his carries and targets heading north in each of the last three games.
Value Bet
Noah Gray has just one touchdown this season but he does have 10 catches on 15 targets and does get looked at a lot in the redzone. Denver have conceded the fourth most yards and third most touchdowns to tight ends this season. Gray is value.
