After 27 rounds and three weeks of finals, we have arrived at Grand Final day with the two standout teams of the competition squaring off in the most important game of the season with premiership glory awaiting.
Best Bet
The two best teams in the NRL square off with Penrith playing in their fourth straight decider and looking to become the first team since 1983 to win three consecutive premierships while Brisbane play in their first decider since 2015 after winning the wooden spoon just four seasons ago.
The betting in this game is stunning and it is shocking that Penrith are not more heavily favoured. The line for this game should be 6.5 minimum.
The strongest guide for premiership success over the last two decades has been defence. Penrith are panels ahead of Brisbane on that front. Not only are the Panthers a 4.71 ppg better defensive team than Brisbane, they have conceded just 10 tries in their last eight finals games. In their last five Grand Final halves, Penrith have allowed just five tries and that includes the two garbage time tries scored late last year with the premiership secured.
The numbers for Penrith are truly astonishing and really reinforce the notion that this is one of the greatest teams to ever play in the premiership. The Panthers not only get it done – they get it done when they should.
Penrith have covered 16 of 23 when playing a team located in the Top 3. They are also 12-7 ATS at home off a win of 20-plus and they are 16-8 ATS at home off conceding 12 or fewer and there is no doubt they can be viewed as the home team in this one. The Panthers have covered 61% of games in Sydney over the last four seasons while they are a ridiculous 14-3 ATS under Adam Gee over that timeframe.
Brisbane’s numbers are a little more mixed. They have covered six of seven interstate and six of seven at night but they are 13-17 ATS v Top 4 teams and have covered just 6 of 16 under Adam Gee.
These two have played some incredibly low scoring games of late and Penrith’s default setting in finals is defence. It is hard to see Brisbane’s attack, as good as it is, being able to open up against the Panthers. The Panthers will suffocate the life out of them. With a small minus, Penrith are a hugely confident bet to win this and win it in a 24-6 like scoreline.
Same Game Multi
Brian To’o has failed to score in just two of his last 14 games and has 16 tries in his last 11 matches, including a hat-trick last week against Melbourne. He has scored in two of three Grand Finals.
Nathan Cleary is in fantastic tryscoring form with tries in four straight games. He has scored in three of his last six against the Broncos.
Value Bet
Brisbane’s attack has been absolutely elite this season but Grand Finals tend to be defensive grinds and teams on the wrong end of the scoreboard rarely post a big score. The losing team in the Grand Final has scored 12 or fewer in 13 of the last 17 Grand Finals including the last two. The Broncos have not scored more than 13 in their last six against Brisbane. The Broncos just aren’t scoring a lot of points.
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