Penrith look to be marching to four straight Grand Finals and hosting a declining Melbourne team are unlikely to hit much of a road bump on preliminary final weekend.
Best Bet
It is hard to envisage a scenario where Melbourne come close to challenging Penrith outside of illness sweeping through the Panthers or apocalyptic weather hitting Accor Stadium.
The Panthers are, of course, the gold standard. That is usually determined by defence and Penrith are conceding just 13ppg this year against Melbourne’s 19.13. The Storm are a declining power and they are declining in the area made them great: their impenetrable defence.
While Melbourne once owned Penrith, the Panthers have been dominant against the Storm in recent times. They have won both meetings by 18-plus this year. They have won and covered four of the last five. They have scored 26 or more in three of their last four while the Storm have not topped 16 in five straight.
This is just a tremendous spot for the Panthers too.
Penrith are 15-9 against the spread when favoured by double digits. They have covered 15 of 22 when playing against Top 4 opposition. They have covered 11 of 18 at home off a win of 20-plus.
Melbourne have covered just 5 of 13 as an interstate underdog and just 6 of 16 against Top 4 teams.
Chips in Penrith laying the big start.
Same Game Multi
Brian To’o has failed to score in just two of his last 13 games and has 13 tries in his last 10 matches.
Stephen Crichton has scored a try in seven of his last 10 and has six tries in nine games against the Storm.
Value Bet
Liam Martin has been in elite tryscoring form and can be bet with confidence to score against Melbourne. The hard-running Martin had scored in four straight games and has crossed in six of nine starts since Round 18 – where he crossed against the Storm. Martin is great value to get across.
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