The AFL’s individual awards always make for great punting opportunities, especially sport’s best betting event, the Brownlow Medal. Let’s have a look for some early plays before the 2023 season.
Be sure to check out our 2023 AFL Season Preview for each club as well.
Brownlow Medal
Best Bet
It seems wrong that ‘The Bont’ is not yet a Brownlow Medallist, much like Patty Cripps before last year, but this could be his season.
The Doggies’ skipper was hampered by a raft of minor injuries last year and never hit his brilliant best. He looked fit and firing against North on Saturday, racking up 28 touches, 10 clearances and two goals.
Luke Beveridge’s team should win more games with their new found key position depth which should also mean Bont plays less time forward. He’ll have less competition for votes too with the Dogs’ 2022 Brownlow leader Josh Dunkley (14 votes) now at Brisbane.
Next Best
We’re expecting Melbourne to challenge for, and win, the premiership in our AFL season preview, which will mean plenty of votes again for star Demons Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver.
Giving ‘Trac’ the nod ahead of his teammate due to his goal-kicking ability. His goal tally was down to 19 from 29 the year prior through inaccuracy (he actually had two more shots in 2022) so if he can straighten up and score around 30 again we should see him over 20 votes for the fourth straight year.
Roughie
He’d need to end the over three-decade long stranglehold that midfielders have on the Brownlow, but Cameron is capable of breaking through after finishing eighth with 19 votes in 2022.
He has two key things in his favour; one, the Cats have a very even midfield that doesn’t tend to rack up votes (Cam Guthrie was the only other player in double figures in 2022) and two, the Cats will win a lot of games.
After a breakout Brownlow year, Cameron is worth a nibble at a huge price.
Coleman Medal
Best Bet
Surprising that we get Curnow on the third line of betting for the Coleman after a sensational 2022 campaign where he won the award with 64 goals from a league-high 4.8 shots at goal per game.
The 26-year-old only kicked at 60% for goal so there is scope for improvement with his accuracy which could mean even more snags in 2023.
Injury is the only concern after playing his first full season since 2018 but coming off a full pre-season so he looks ready to go.
Next Best
Only fitness stopped Lynch winning his first Coleman in 2022, with the big Tiger clearly averaging the most goals per game at 3.32 (well ahead of Charlie Curnow on 2.91).
The ex-Sun should benefit from improved delivery into the forward line with the recruitment of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper, and with 34-year-old Jack Riewoldt on the wane, he’ll assume even more goal kicking responsibility.
Lynch looks to have overcome a pre-season foot injury and should be ready to make a big impact as Richmond chase another flag.
Roughie
Not too much value in the market but Ben King is certainly capable of a big year, albeit coming off an ACL injury.
The Gold Coast forward kicked 47 goals in 2021 in a team that finished 16th. He has, terrifyingly, still only played 53 games and will benefit from a much better Suns midfield than when he last was on the park.
It may not be this year but it seems only a matter of time before the King brothers start winning Coleman Medals.
Rising Star
Best Bet
It looks to be another Nick Daicos or Sam Walsh year for the Rising Star with the favourite Will Ascroft looking a shoo-in before a game is played.
He was value a couple of weeks ago at $3.00+ but after 26 touches against the Cats is under even money.
If there is a question on him it’s that we haven’t seen many number one draft picks go to premiership contenders. This may actually help Ashcroft avoid too much opposition attention with a greater focus on Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley, but it will also mean he’ll need to maintain his form all year as Brisbane hunt for a flag.
Next Best
It’s a sign that Alastair Clarkson has a lot of work ahead of him at North when an 18-year-old rookie already looks like one of his most composed players, but that’s certainly the case with Sheezel.
The former Sandy Dragon kicked three goals in a half of match simulation up forward and then another against the Dogs to go with 21 disposals at 81% efficiency with seven score involvements.
Clarko has experimented with putting the number three pick at half back too so he will get plenty of opportunity to show his versatility in his first year.
Roughie
A second year player who will get plenty of games in a St Kilda team desperately in need of some excitement.
The athletic forward was one of the Saints’ best against the Bombers in their practice match, kicking three of his team’s ten goals from 16 possessions (nine contested).
He’s on the same line of betting as a Brayden George at North who has an ACL injury and won’t play this year. Expect an early nomination for Owens and his price to come well in.
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